Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below, or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.
This week represents a bit of a change in the weekly TFR column. No doubt, there were a lot of fantasy happenings to discuss, and we will get to those in a bit, but a conversation with Charlie over this past weekend motivated me to cover a specific topic in this week’s column.
In fantasy football, you have to win by being you.
Understand what your best strategy options are, what type of fantasy football player are you? If you don’t understand how you operate best, you won’t be entirely successful at it. For example, my style is to load up on as many talented players as I can early in the season, and to identify what other teams in the league have specific position weaknesses. I try to use my depth to acquire other players that I had my eye on, but wasn’t able to acquire. Needless to say, I am usually one of the most active players in free agency and trades in any league I’m in.
I’ve also seen players who focus entirely on drafting the best team possible, and then are very hesitant to make moves throughout the season, as they like to believe in the team they drafted initially, and believe that team is the best it can be. Other teams like to make sure their favorite real life players are on their team, so that they can comfortably cheer for both their real life and fantasy teams.
No matter what strategy you employ, the best option is to own it. If you try to match another strategy, or force others to play by your strategy, it makes things less fun, and less successful. The great part about fantasy sports is that there are many paths to a league championship; it’s all about execution to see who wins.
This week, our analysis looks solely into the running back position.
The first four weeks of 2013 have been the year of the bad running backs. Much has been made about how the league is becoming a pass first league, and wide receivers are getting more points than ever. Remember, fantasy football is about value above replacement players, and running backs are very difficult to replace. If you drafted CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson and you’re unhappy with the number of points you are getting, check first to see what is causing the lack of points. Is it injury, lack of touches, lack of talent, or defensive attention? Before moving forward, it’s important to understand what can be fixed, and what can’t be. My gut feeling on who can bounce back and who can’t is as follows.
Will be okay: Spiller, Martin, Rice and Richardson
Spiller is splitting carries with Fred Jackson, and that has many owners freaking out. Spiller’s value isn’t as a workhorse back; it’s as a speed threat that can score from anywhere and participate in the passing game. As EJ Manuel gets more comfortable, he should improve. The Buccaneers are still feeding Doug Martin the ball constantly and eventually a few more holes should open up. Martin won’t lead the league in yards per carry, but seems to be the number one option in Tampa, he’ll bounce back. Ray Rice has been battling a hip injury, and against Buffalo, he didn’t get a lot of work. With the Ravens struggling, I’m guessing they start going back to the basics, which means a lot of work for Rice. Richardson has had a crazy first few weeks of the season, but after the Colts bye-week, I’m guessing he’ll take over as the full-time back, much like he was able to with Ahmad Bradshaw missing the most recent game to injury.
Time to be concerned: Ridley, MJD, Morris and Jackson
It’s clear that Ridley is in a timeshare now. Although he is the lead back, he loses a lot of carries to his teammates, which decreases his value. He’ll likely finish with decent yardage and touchdowns, but they will be hard to predict. Jacksonville is a mess, and isn’t using MJD to his full potential, and when they do, they aren’t able to block for him. This is starting to feel like a season in which Washington will not be able to catch a break, and much of Morris’ success last year came from the fact that defenses had to focus on RGIII. Jackson might just be too old now, with injury issues forcing him to miss a chunk of time. By the time he gets back, he might come back into a timeshare in a passing offense.
These are all gut feelings, so I recommend you really go deep, and see what is causing these issues. Find out what you think is going to happen in the next 13 weeks.
Week 5 Bye-Week Fill-ins: Terrelle Pryor, (yes again) Danny Woodhead, Tashard Choice, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Pettis, Coby Fleener.
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